Bristol Rugby vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 65.9%draw 2.5%31.6% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sale Sharks and 19 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Sale Sharks 1558 — 30 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
20 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 9.3 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Sale Sharks by 12.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Sale Sharks 38–17 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2026-01-02 | Bristol Rugby 19–17 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-05-16 | Sale Sharks 41–27 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-12-27 | Bristol Rugby 0–38 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-01-05 | Sale Sharks 14–22 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.