Bristol Rugby vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 75.1%draw 2.5%22.4% Sale SharksSale Sharks 52.1%draw 2.5%45.4% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 62.7%draw 2.5%34.8% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Sale Sharks and 25 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 1 Bristol Rugby and 15 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 6 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Sale Sharks 1504 — 258 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby7–1–13Sale Sharks21 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Sale Sharks by 11.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Sale Sharks 24–34 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2026-06-06 | Sale Sharks 38–17 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2026-01-02 | Bristol Rugby 19–17 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-05-16 | Sale Sharks 41–27 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-12-27 | Bristol Rugby 0–38 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.