Bristol Rugby vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% SaracensSaracens 68.6%draw 2.5%28.9% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Saracens and 17 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 7 Saracens and 9 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Saracens 1861 — 99 points, favouring Saracens
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby2–0–14Saracens16 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Saracens by 15.8 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Saracens by 14.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Saracens 30–7 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2026-05-09 | Bristol Rugby 26–41 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-10-04 | Saracens 50–17 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-01-04 | Saracens 35–26 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-10-19 | Bristol Rugby 35–37 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.