Bristol Rugby vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Saracens 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Saracens and 15 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Saracens.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Saracens 1802 — 214 points, favouring Saracens
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
14 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Saracens by 13.6 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Saracens by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Bristol Rugby 26–41 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-10-04 | Saracens 50–17 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-01-04 | Saracens 35–26 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-10-19 | Bristol Rugby 35–37 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-05-11 | Bristol Rugby 20–41 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.