Bristol Rugby vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% ScarletsScarlets 33.1%draw 2.5%64.4% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 75.9%draw 2.5%21.6% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Scarlets and 32 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 2 Bristol Rugby and 20 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 10 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Scarlets 1273 — 489 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby2–0–0Scarlets2 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Bristol Rugby by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Scarlets 16–17 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-01-22 | Scarlets 21–52 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.