Bristol Rugby vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Francais Paris 73.0%draw 2.5%24.5% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 187 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
3 meetings, 2019 to 2022 · Bristol Rugby by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-15 | Bristol Rugby 28–17 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2019-12-14 | Stade Francais Paris 16–18 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2019-12-07 | Bristol Rugby 37–11 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.