Bristol Rugby vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 50.8%draw 2.5%46.7% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 25 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 4 Stade Francais Paris and 13 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 4 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 31 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby3–0–0Stade Francais Paris3 meetings, 2019 to 2022 · Bristol Rugby by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-15 | Bristol Rugby 28–17 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2019-12-14 | Stade Francais Paris 16–18 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2019-12-07 | Bristol Rugby 37–11 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.