Bristol Rugby vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 26.6%draw 2.5%70.9% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Stade Toulousain and 14 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 12 Stade Toulousain and 5 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 230 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby0–0–1Stade Toulousain1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 33.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Stade Toulousain 59–26 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.