Bristol Rugby vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Stade Toulousain 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Stade Toulousain and 13 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 275 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 33.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Stade Toulousain 59–26 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.