Bristol Rugby vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 65.9%draw 2.5%31.6% ToulonToulon 60.2%draw 2.5%37.3% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Toulon and 27 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 3 Toulon and 15 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 5 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Toulon 1663 — 99 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby1–0–0Toulon1 meeting, 2020 to 2020 · Bristol Rugby by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-10-16 | Bristol Rugby 32–19 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Stade Maurice David |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.