Bristol Rugby vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 86.5%draw 2.5%11.0% ZebreZebre 19.8%draw 2.5%77.7% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 37 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 4 Bristol Rugby and 24 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 12 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Zebre 1071 — 691 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby4–1–1Zebre6 meetings, 2018 to 2023 · Bristol Rugby by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Zebre 11–34 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-12-18 | Bristol Rugby 35–19 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2020-01-18 | Zebre 7–7 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2019-11-16 | Bristol Rugby 59–21 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2018-10-20 | Zebre 20–17 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.