Brumbies vs Cheetahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 78.4%draw 2.5%19.1% CheetahsCheetahs 38.5%draw 2.5%59.0% BrumbiesBrumbies 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% CheetahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Cheetahs and 32 Brumbies, with the middle run at 9 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Cheetahs.
Brumbies 1498, Cheetahs 1260 — 239 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies2–0–0Cheetahs2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Brumbies by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Cheetahs 18–25 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-04-04 | Brumbies 20–3 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.