Brumbies vs Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 37.3%draw 2.5%60.2% ChiefsChiefs 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% BrumbiesBrumbies 25.5%draw 2.5%72.0% ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Chiefs and 15 Brumbies, half of them between 11 Chiefs and 5 Brumbies, with the middle run at 3 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps Chiefs.
Brumbies 1558, Chiefs 1840 — 282 points, favouring Chiefs
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies4–0–9Chiefs13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Chiefs by 6.2 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Chiefs by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Brumbies 33–24 Chiefs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-06-14 | Chiefs 37–17 Brumbies | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2024-03-03 | Chiefs 46–12 Brumbies | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-06-17 | Chiefs 19–6 Brumbies | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2023-05-27 | Brumbies 21–31 Chiefs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.