Brumbies vs Crusaders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% CrusadersCrusaders 76.9%draw 2.5%20.6% BrumbiesBrumbies 34.8%draw 2.5%62.7% CrusadersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Crusaders and 16 Brumbies, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Crusaders.
Brumbies 1498, Crusaders 1717 — 218 points, favouring Crusaders
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies2–0–9Crusaders11 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 7.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Crusaders by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Crusaders 24–50 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-05-30 | Brumbies 31–33 Crusaders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Brumbies 31–24 Crusaders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2023-03-24 | Crusaders 35–17 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2022-05-13 | Brumbies 26–37 Crusaders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.