Brumbies vs Crusaders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 53.6%draw 2.5%43.9% CrusadersCrusaders 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% BrumbiesBrumbies 34.2%draw 2.5%63.3% CrusadersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v Crusaders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Crusaders and 19 Brumbies, half of them between 6 Crusaders and 10 Brumbies, with the middle run at 1 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps Crusaders.
Brumbies 1558, Crusaders 1777 — 218 points, favouring Crusaders
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies2–0–9Crusaders11 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 7.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Crusaders by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Crusaders 24–50 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-05-30 | Brumbies 31–33 Crusaders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Brumbies 31–24 Crusaders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2023-03-24 | Crusaders 35–17 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2022-05-13 | Brumbies 26–37 Crusaders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.