Brumbies vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 79.3%draw 2.5%18.2% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 43.8%draw 2.5%53.7% BrumbiesBrumbies 67.2%draw 2.5%30.3% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v Fijian Drua, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Fijian Drua and 32 Brumbies, half of them between 1 Brumbies and 19 Brumbies, with the middle run at 9 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps Fijian Drua.
Brumbies 1558, Fijian Drua 1225 — 333 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies6–0–2Fijian Drua8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Brumbies by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Brumbies 28–33 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2026-03-14 | Fijian Drua 42–27 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Four R Stadium |
| 2025-03-14 | Brumbies 38–21 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Fijian Drua 32–36 Brumbies | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-05-04 | Brumbies 28–20 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.