Brumbies vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 48.1%draw 2.5%49.4% BrumbiesBrumbies 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Fijian Drua and 31 Brumbies, with the middle run at 8 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Fijian Drua.
Brumbies 1498, Fijian Drua 1277 — 222 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies6–0–2Fijian Drua8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Brumbies by 10.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Brumbies 28–33 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2026-03-14 | Fijian Drua 42–27 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Four R Stadium |
| 2025-03-14 | Brumbies 38–21 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-02-15 | Fijian Drua 32–36 Brumbies | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-05-04 | Brumbies 28–20 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.