Brumbies vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% HighlandersHighlanders 46.7%draw 2.5%50.8% BrumbiesBrumbies 61.2%draw 2.5%36.3% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Highlanders and 29 Brumbies, with the middle run at 7 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Highlanders.
Brumbies 1498, Highlanders 1328 — 171 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies7–0–5Highlanders12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 1.2 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Brumbies by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Highlanders 10–14 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-03-28 | Brumbies 34–27 Highlanders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Brumbies 32–16 Highlanders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-03-16 | Highlanders 21–27 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2023-05-14 | Brumbies 48–32 Highlanders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.