Brumbies vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% HighlandersHighlanders 51.4%draw 2.5%46.1% BrumbiesBrumbies 60.9%draw 2.5%36.6% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v Highlanders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Highlanders and 32 Brumbies, half of them between 1 Brumbies and 19 Brumbies, with the middle run at 8 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-29 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps Highlanders.
Brumbies 1558, Highlanders 1314 — 244 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies7–0–6Highlanders13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 0.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Brumbies by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Highlanders 10–14 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-03-28 | Brumbies 34–27 Highlanders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Brumbies 32–16 Highlanders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-03-16 | Highlanders 21–27 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2023-05-14 | Brumbies 48–32 Highlanders | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.