Brumbies vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 35.9%draw 2.5%61.6% HurricanesHurricanes 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% BrumbiesBrumbies 27.1%draw 2.5%70.4% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Hurricanes and 14 Brumbies, with the middle run at 3 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Hurricanes.
Brumbies 1498, Hurricanes 1864 — 366 points, favouring Hurricanes
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies7–0–8Hurricanes15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 7.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Hurricanes by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Hurricanes 66–12 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-04-25 | Hurricanes 45–12 Brumbies | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Brumbies 35–28 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Brumbies 29–35 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Brumbies 27–19 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.