Brumbies vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 42.1%draw 2.5%55.4% HurricanesHurricanes 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% BrumbiesBrumbies 28.3%draw 2.5%69.2% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v Hurricanes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Hurricanes and 15 Brumbies, half of them between 11 Hurricanes and 6 Brumbies, with the middle run at 2 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps Hurricanes.
Brumbies 1558, Hurricanes 1912 — 354 points, favouring Hurricanes
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies8–0–8Hurricanes16 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 6.2 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Hurricanes by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Hurricanes 66–12 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-04-25 | Hurricanes 45–12 Brumbies | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Brumbies 35–28 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-04-26 | Brumbies 29–35 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Brumbies 27–19 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.