Brumbies vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% LionsLions 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% BrumbiesBrumbies 35.2%draw 2.5%62.3% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Lions and 13 Brumbies, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Lions.
Brumbies 1498, Lions 1678 — 180 points, favouring Lions
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies2–0–2Lions4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Lions by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Brumbies 31–20 Lions | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2018-05-19 | Lions 42–24 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2017-05-12 | Brumbies 6–13 Lions | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2015-05-16 | Lions 20–30 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.