Brumbies vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 49.2%draw 2.5%48.3% BrumbiesBrumbies 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v New South Wales Waratahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 New South Wales Waratahs and 29 Brumbies, half of them between 1 New South Wales Waratahs and 18 Brumbies, with the middle run at 7 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps New South Wales Waratahs.
Brumbies 1558, New South Wales Waratahs 1289 — 269 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies18–0–5New South Wales Waratahs23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 9.8 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Brumbies by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | New South Wales Waratahs 14–21 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2026-03-27 | Brumbies 28–30 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-05-03 | Brumbies 40–17 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-03-22 | New South Wales Waratahs 28–23 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–29 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.