Brumbies vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 50.5%draw 2.5%47.0% BrumbiesBrumbies 58.7%draw 2.5%38.8% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 New South Wales Waratahs and 24 Brumbies, with the middle run at 5 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Brumbies 1498, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 187 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies18–0–4New South Wales Waratahs22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 10.6 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Brumbies by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | New South Wales Waratahs 14–21 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2026-03-27 | Brumbies 28–30 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-05-03 | Brumbies 40–17 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-03-22 | New South Wales Waratahs 28–23 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-05-11 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–29 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.