Brumbies vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 68.4%draw 2.5%29.1% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 54.2%draw 2.5%43.3% BrumbiesBrumbies 55.9%draw 2.5%41.6% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Queensland Reds and 22 Brumbies, with the middle run at 4 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Brumbies 1498, Queensland Reds 1454 — 44 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies15–0–10Queensland Reds25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 6.0 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Brumbies by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Queensland Reds 30–21 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2026-03-07 | Brumbies 31–34 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-05-17 | Brumbies 24–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-04-12 | Queensland Reds 26–39 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-03-30 | Queensland Reds 19–20 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.