Brumbies vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Brumbies 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% BrumbiesBrumbies 52.8%draw 2.5%44.7% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Brumbies v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Queensland Reds and 26 Brumbies, half of them between 2 Queensland Reds and 15 Brumbies, with the middle run at 5 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Brumbies winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Brumbies, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Brumbies 1558, Queensland Reds 1460 — 98 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies15–0–10Queensland Reds25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 6.0 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Brumbies by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Queensland Reds 30–21 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2026-03-07 | Brumbies 31–34 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-05-17 | Brumbies 24–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-04-12 | Queensland Reds 26–39 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-03-30 | Queensland Reds 19–20 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.