Brumbies vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% SharksSharks 69.0%draw 2.5%28.5% BrumbiesBrumbies 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Sharks and 20 Brumbies, with the middle run at 2 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Sharks.
Brumbies 1498, Sharks 1613 — 114 points, favouring Sharks
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies2–0–1Sharks3 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Brumbies by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-22 | Brumbies 38–13 Sharks | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2018-03-17 | Brumbies 24–17 Sharks | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2017-03-04 | Brumbies 22–27 Sharks | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.