Brumbies vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 48.5%draw 2.5%49.0% StormersStormers 77.6%draw 2.5%19.9% BrumbiesBrumbies 34.6%draw 2.5%62.9% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stormers and 15 Brumbies, with the middle run at 1 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Stormers.
Brumbies 1498, Stormers 1716 — 217 points, favouring Stormers
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies2–0–2Stormers4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Brumbies by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-20 | Stormers 17–19 Brumbies | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-03-19 | Stormers 31–11 Brumbies | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2015-06-20 | Stormers 19–39 Brumbies | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2015-05-09 | Stormers 25–24 Brumbies | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.