Brumbies vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Brumbies 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% Western ForceWestern Force 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% BrumbiesBrumbies 57.1%draw 2.5%40.4% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Brumbies wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Western Force and 23 Brumbies, with the middle run at 5 Brumbies.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Brumbies are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Brumbies, negative favours Western Force.
Brumbies 1498, Western Force 1463 — 36 points, favouring Brumbies
Brumbies are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Brumbies17–0–2Western Force19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Brumbies by 11.9 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Brumbies by 7.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Brumbies 32–15 Western Force | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2026-02-14 | Western Force 24–56 Brumbies | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-05-10 | Western Force 14–33 Brumbies | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2025-02-22 | Brumbies 42–45 Western Force | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2024-06-01 | Western Force 19–24 Brumbies | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.