Bulls vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 41.4%draw 2.5%56.1% BullsBulls 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Cardiff Blues, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Cardiff Blues and 34 Bulls, half of them between 2 Bulls and 22 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-13 on a tight afternoon and 33-23 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Cardiff Blues.
Bulls 1862, Cardiff Blues 1645 — 217 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–0Cardiff Blues5 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Bulls by 21.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Bulls 40–7 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-05-10 | Bulls 45–21 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-11-10 | Cardiff Blues 12–18 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-12-03 | Bulls 45–9 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2021-10-09 | Cardiff Blues 19–29 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.