Bulls vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 77.1%draw 2.5%20.4% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 45.0%draw 2.5%52.5% BullsBulls 65.1%draw 2.5%32.4% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Cardiff Blues and 35 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Cardiff Blues.
Bulls 1769, Cardiff Blues 1573 — 195 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–0Cardiff Blues5 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Bulls by 21.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Bulls 40–7 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-05-10 | Bulls 45–21 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-11-10 | Cardiff Blues 12–18 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-12-03 | Bulls 45–9 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2021-10-09 | Cardiff Blues 19–29 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.