Bulls vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 42.4%draw 2.5%55.1% BullsBulls 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Castres Olympique and 30 Bulls, with the middle run at 8 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Castres Olympique.
Bulls 1769, Castres Olympique 1485 — 284 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls0–0–1Castres Olympique1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Castres Olympique by 39.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Castres Olympique 49–10 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.