Bulls vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 82.3%draw 2.5%15.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 39.9%draw 2.5%57.6% BullsBulls 71.8%draw 2.5%25.7% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Castres Olympique, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Castres Olympique and 35 Bulls, half of them between 2 Bulls and 23 Bulls, with the middle run at 11 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Castres Olympique.
Bulls 1862, Castres Olympique 1456 — 406 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls0–0–1Castres Olympique1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Castres Olympique by 39.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Castres Olympique 49–10 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.