Bulls vs Cheetahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 84.6%draw 2.5%12.9% CheetahsCheetahs 20.2%draw 2.5%77.3% BullsBulls 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% CheetahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Cheetahs and 39 Bulls, with the middle run at 13 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Cheetahs.
Bulls 1769, Cheetahs 1260 — 509 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–2Cheetahs6 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Bulls by 6.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-22 | Bulls 20–14 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2017-03-04 | Cheetahs 34–28 Bulls | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-07-16 | Cheetahs 17–43 Bulls | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-04-02 | Bulls 23–18 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2015-06-13 | Bulls 29–42 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.