Bulls vs Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% ChiefsChiefs 62.7%draw 2.5%34.8% BullsBulls 43.9%draw 2.5%53.6% ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Chiefs and 20 Bulls, with the middle run at 1 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Chiefs.
Bulls 1769, Chiefs 1775 — 7 points, favouring Chiefs
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls0–0–4Chiefs4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Chiefs by 19.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-23 | Bulls 20–56 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2018-03-16 | Chiefs 41–28 Bulls | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2017-04-01 | Chiefs 28–12 Bulls | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2015-05-22 | Chiefs 34–20 Bulls | Super Rugby | Rotorua International Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.