Bulls vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 84.1%draw 2.5%13.4% DragonsDragons 31.2%draw 2.5%66.3% BullsBulls 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Dragons and 35 Bulls, half of them between 3 Bulls and 23 Bulls, with the middle run at 11 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-13 on a tight afternoon and 35-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Bulls 1862, Dragons 1330 — 532 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–0Dragons5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 30.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Dragons 7–47 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2025-05-17 | Bulls 55–15 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-03-23 | Dragons 10–31 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-01-06 | Dragons 14–29 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2022-03-26 | Bulls 55–20 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.