Bulls vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 81.7%draw 2.5%15.8% EdinburghEdinburgh 37.6%draw 2.5%59.9% BullsBulls 71.6%draw 2.5%25.9% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Edinburgh and 33 Bulls, half of them between 2 Bulls and 22 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 34-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Bulls 1862, Edinburgh 1528 — 334 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–3Edinburgh7 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Edinburgh by 0.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Edinburgh 17–19 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2025-05-31 | Bulls 42–33 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-04-12 | Edinburgh 34–28 Bulls | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Bulls 22–16 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-11-17 | Edinburgh 31–23 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.