Bulls vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% BullsBulls 48.5%draw 2.5%49.0% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Exeter Chiefs and 24 Bulls, with the middle run at 4 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Bulls 1769, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 15 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls1–0–1Exeter Chiefs2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 9.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-14 | Bulls 39–28 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-12-17 | Exeter Chiefs 44–14 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.