Bulls vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% BullsBulls 49.2%draw 2.5%48.3% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Glasgow Warriors and 26 Bulls, with the middle run at 3 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Bulls 1769, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 23 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–4Glasgow Warriors8 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 0.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Glasgow Warriors 21–22 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2026-04-04 | Glasgow Warriors 25–21 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-10-24 | Glasgow Warriors 21–12 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2025-04-25 | Glasgow Warriors 19–26 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-06-22 | Bulls 16–21 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.