Bulls vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 50.5%draw 2.5%47.0% HurricanesHurricanes 71.9%draw 2.5%25.6% BullsBulls 37.9%draw 2.5%59.6% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Hurricanes and 20 Bulls, with the middle run at 1 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Hurricanes.
Bulls 1769, Hurricanes 1864 — 95 points, favouring Hurricanes
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls1–0–3Hurricanes4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Hurricanes by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-22 | Hurricanes 35–28 Bulls | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2018-02-24 | Bulls 21–19 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2017-05-27 | Bulls 20–34 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2015-02-20 | Bulls 13–17 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.