Bulls vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% LeinsterLeinster 66.9%draw 2.5%30.6% BullsBulls 43.1%draw 2.5%54.4% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leinster and 21 Bulls, half of them between 6 Leinster and 11 Bulls, with the middle run at 2 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 64 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Bulls 1862, Leinster 1915 — 53 points, favouring Leinster
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–4Leinster9 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Leinster by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Leinster 36–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Croke Park |
| 2025-10-04 | Bulls 39–31 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-06-14 | Leinster 32–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Croke Park |
| 2025-03-22 | Bulls 21–20 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-06-15 | Bulls 25–20 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.