Bulls vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% LeinsterLeinster 71.4%draw 2.5%26.1% BullsBulls 36.9%draw 2.5%60.6% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Leinster and 16 Bulls, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Bulls are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Leinster.
Bulls 1769, Leinster 1912 — 143 points, favouring Leinster
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–4Leinster9 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Leinster by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Leinster 36–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Croke Park |
| 2025-10-04 | Bulls 39–31 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-06-14 | Leinster 32–7 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Croke Park |
| 2025-03-22 | Bulls 21–20 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-06-15 | Bulls 25–20 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.