Bulls vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 80.0%draw 2.5%17.5% LionsLions 43.1%draw 2.5%54.4% BullsBulls 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Lions and 33 Bulls, half of them between 1 Bulls and 21 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-13 on a tight afternoon and 33-23 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Bulls 1862, Lions 1664 — 198 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls12–0–7Lions19 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bulls by 4.1 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Bulls by 12.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Bulls 57–15 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2026-01-31 | Lions 17–52 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2025-11-29 | Bulls 33–43 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-02-22 | Bulls 31–19 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-01-25 | Lions 22–35 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.