Bulls vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 62.2%draw 2.5%35.3% LionsLions 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% BullsBulls 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lions and 26 Bulls, with the middle run at 4 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Lions.
Bulls 1769, Lions 1678 — 90 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls10–0–7Lions17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · level on average margin
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Bulls by 9.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Bulls 33–43 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-02-22 | Bulls 31–19 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-01-25 | Lions 22–35 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-02-17 | Lions 10–25 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2024-01-27 | Bulls 30–28 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.