Bulls vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% LyonLyon 35.4%draw 2.5%62.1% BullsBulls 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Lyon and 32 Bulls, half of them between 2 Bulls and 20 Bulls, with the middle run at 9 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Bulls 1862, Lyon 1487 — 375 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls2–0–2Lyon4 meetings, 2022 to 2024 · Bulls by 5.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Bulls 59–19 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-12-16 | Lyon 29–28 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2023-01-20 | Lyon 31–7 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2022-12-10 | Bulls 42–36 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.