Bulls vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 65.9%draw 2.5%31.6% MunsterMunster 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% BullsBulls 57.0%draw 2.5%40.5% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Munster and 31 Bulls, with the middle run at 6 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Munster.
Bulls 1769, Munster 1670 — 98 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–2Munster6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 3.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Bulls 45–14 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2026-03-28 | Bulls 34–31 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-04-19 | Munster 13–16 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-04-20 | Bulls 22–27 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2022-10-15 | Munster 31–17 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.