Bulls vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% MunsterMunster 48.9%draw 2.5%48.6% BullsBulls 64.5%draw 2.5%33.0% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Munster and 28 Bulls, half of them between 1 Bulls and 17 Bulls, with the middle run at 8 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-14 on a tight afternoon and 32-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Bulls 1862, Munster 1728 — 134 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–3Munster7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 2.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Munster 26–22 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2026-05-30 | Bulls 45–14 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2026-03-28 | Bulls 34–31 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-04-19 | Munster 13–16 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2024-04-20 | Bulls 22–27 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.