Bulls vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 80.7%draw 2.5%16.8% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% BullsBulls 75.6%draw 2.5%21.9% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 New South Wales Waratahs and 33 Bulls, with the middle run at 9 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Bulls 1769, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 458 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls1–0–1New South Wales Waratahs2 meetings, 2016 to 2019 · New South Wales Waratahs by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-04 | Bulls 28–21 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2016-05-14 | New South Wales Waratahs 31–8 Bulls | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.