Bulls vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 50.5%draw 2.5%47.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 66.9%draw 2.5%30.6% BullsBulls 40.3%draw 2.5%57.2% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Northampton Saints and 21 Bulls, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Bulls 1769, Northampton Saints 1918 — 149 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls0–0–3Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Northampton Saints by 30.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Northampton Saints 50–5 Bulls | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-12-14 | Bulls 21–30 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-04-13 | Northampton Saints 59–22 Bulls | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.