Bulls vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% BullsBulls 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Queensland Reds and 33 Bulls, with the middle run at 10 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Bulls 1769, Queensland Reds 1454 — 315 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls3–0–2Queensland Reds5 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Bulls by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-14 | Queensland Reds 41–17 Bulls | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2019-04-13 | Bulls 32–17 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2018-03-10 | Queensland Reds 20–14 Bulls | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2016-04-16 | Bulls 41–22 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2015-04-11 | Bulls 43–22 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.