Bulls vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% SaracensSaracens 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% BullsBulls 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Saracens and 27 Bulls, half of them between 2 Saracens and 16 Bulls, with the middle run at 6 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Bulls 1862, Saracens 1861 — 1 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls1–0–1Saracens2 meetings, 2023 to 2024 · Saracens by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Saracens 27–5 Bulls | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2023-12-09 | Bulls 27–16 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.