Bulls vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls host Scarlets on Saturday 31 October at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, so Bulls are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bulls 85.0%draw 2.5%12.5% ScarletsScarlets 27.5%draw 2.5%70.0% BullsBulls 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 36 Bulls, half of them between 4 Bulls and 24 Bulls, with the middle run at 12 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-13 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Bulls 1862, Scarlets 1273 — 589 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls3–0–2Scarlets5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Scarlets 21–23 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-10-18 | Scarlets 23–22 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-10-22 | Bulls 63–21 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-01-27 | Scarlets 37–28 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-03-18 | Bulls 57–12 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.