Bulls vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 81.1%draw 2.5%16.4% ScarletsScarlets 30.6%draw 2.5%66.9% BullsBulls 74.5%draw 2.5%23.0% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scarlets and 36 Bulls, with the middle run at 11 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Scarlets.
Bulls 1769, Scarlets 1334 — 434 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls3–0–2Scarlets5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Scarlets 21–23 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-10-18 | Scarlets 23–22 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-10-22 | Bulls 63–21 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-01-27 | Scarlets 37–28 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-03-18 | Bulls 57–12 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.