Bulls vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 72.3%draw 2.5%25.2% SharksSharks 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% BullsBulls 59.4%draw 2.5%38.1% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Sharks and 29 Bulls, half of them between 1 Sharks and 17 Bulls, with the middle run at 7 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-14 on a tight afternoon and 31-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Bulls 1862, Sharks 1746 — 116 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls12–1–7Sharks20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bulls by 5.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bulls by 5.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Bulls 41–12 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-12-20 | Sharks 21–12 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-06-07 | Bulls 25–13 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-02-15 | Bulls 19–29 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-12-21 | Sharks 20–17 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.