Bulls vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 69.2%draw 2.5%28.3% SharksSharks 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% BullsBulls 60.5%draw 2.5%37.0% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Sharks and 27 Bulls, with the middle run at 6 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Sharks.
Bulls 1769, Sharks 1613 — 156 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls10–1–6Sharks17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Bulls by 5.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Bulls by 3.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Sharks 21–12 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-06-07 | Bulls 25–13 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-02-15 | Bulls 19–29 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-12-21 | Sharks 20–17 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-06-01 | Sharks 14–26 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.