Bulls vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% BullsBulls 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Stade Francais Paris and 30 Bulls, half of them between 1 Bulls and 18 Bulls, with the middle run at 8 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Bulls 1862, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 131 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls2–0–0Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Bulls by 38.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Bulls 56–20 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-01-18 | Bulls 48–7 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.