Bulls vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 68.0%draw 2.5%29.5% BullsBulls 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Toulousain and 19 Bulls, half of them between 6 Stade Toulousain and 10 Bulls, with the middle run at 1 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Bulls 1862, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 130 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls0–0–1Stade Toulousain1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Stade Toulousain by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | Stade Toulousain 33–9 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.