Bulls vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 52.4%draw 2.5%45.1% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 67.2%draw 2.5%30.3% BullsBulls 41.2%draw 2.5%56.3% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Toulousain and 21 Bulls, with the middle run at 1 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Bulls 1769, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 95 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls0–0–1Stade Toulousain1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Stade Toulousain by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-02 | Stade Toulousain 33–9 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.