Bulls vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% StormersStormers 64.8%draw 2.5%32.7% BullsBulls 45.2%draw 2.5%52.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stormers and 23 Bulls, half of them between 4 Stormers and 12 Bulls, with the middle run at 3 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 64 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-16 on a tight afternoon and 29-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Bulls 1862, Stormers 1845 — 17 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–18Stormers23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stormers by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stormers by 3.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Bulls 19–32 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2026-01-03 | Stormers 13–8 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Bulls 16–19 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-02-08 | Stormers 32–33 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Bulls 40–22 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.