Bulls vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 62.4%draw 2.5%35.1% StormersStormers 54.2%draw 2.5%43.3% BullsBulls 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stormers and 24 Bulls, with the middle run at 4 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Stormers.
Bulls 1769, Stormers 1716 — 53 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls4–0–18Stormers22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stormers by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stormers by 3.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Bulls 19–32 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2026-01-03 | Stormers 13–8 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Bulls 16–19 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-02-08 | Stormers 32–33 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Bulls 40–22 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.