Bulls vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 81.7%draw 2.5%15.8% Western ForceWestern Force 40.4%draw 2.5%57.1% BullsBulls 67.5%draw 2.5%30.0% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Western Force and 35 Bulls, with the middle run at 11 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Western Force.
Bulls 1769, Western Force 1463 — 306 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls2–0–0Western Force2 meetings, 2015 to 2016 · Bulls by 11.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-29 | Western Force 20–42 Bulls | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2015-03-21 | Bulls 25–24 Western Force | Super Rugby | Loftus Versfeld |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.