Bulls vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bulls 83.6%draw 2.5%13.9% ZebreZebre 20.4%draw 2.5%77.1% BullsBulls 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 39 Bulls, with the middle run at 13 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bulls, negative favours Zebre.
Bulls 1769, Zebre 1309 — 460 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls5–0–0Zebre5 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 40.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Bulls 54–19 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-03-29 | Bulls 63–24 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-11-04 | Zebre 29–54 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-04-15 | Bulls 78–12 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2022-02-25 | Zebre 7–45 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.