Bulls vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bulls 90.3%draw 2.5%7.2% ZebreZebre 15.0%draw 2.5%82.5% BullsBulls 86.8%draw 2.5%10.7% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bulls v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bulls wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Bulls and 39 Bulls, half of them between 5 Bulls and 27 Bulls, with the middle run at 14 Bulls.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Bulls are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bulls winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bulls, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Bulls 1862, Zebre 1071 — 792 points, favouring Bulls
Bulls are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bulls6–0–0Zebre6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bulls by 39.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Zebre 13–47 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2026-05-09 | Bulls 54–19 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2025-03-29 | Bulls 63–24 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2023-11-04 | Zebre 29–54 Bulls | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-04-15 | Bulls 78–12 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.