Cardiff Blues vs Cheetahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% CheetahsCheetahs 34.7%draw 2.5%62.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 71.7%draw 2.5%25.8% CheetahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Cheetahs and 35 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 11 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Cheetahs.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Cheetahs 1260 — 314 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–0–2Cheetahs6 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Cardiff Blues by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Cardiff Blues 26–10 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2019-11-09 | Cardiff Blues 30–17 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-10-27 | Cheetahs 21–10 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-09-28 | Cardiff Blues 24–21 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-04-07 | Cheetahs 29–27 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.