Cardiff Blues vs Cheetahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 84.9%draw 2.5%12.6% CheetahsCheetahs 35.9%draw 2.5%61.6% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 74.0%draw 2.5%23.5% CheetahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Cheetahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Cheetahs and 36 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 3 Cardiff Blues and 24 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 12 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Cheetahs.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Cheetahs 1270 — 376 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–0–2Cheetahs6 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · Cardiff Blues by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Cardiff Blues 26–10 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2019-11-09 | Cardiff Blues 30–17 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-10-27 | Cheetahs 21–10 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-09-28 | Cardiff Blues 24–21 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-04-07 | Cheetahs 29–27 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.