Cardiff Blues vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 71.3%draw 2.5%26.2% DragonsDragons 45.7%draw 2.5%51.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Dragons and 31 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 7 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Dragons.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Dragons 1369 — 204 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues20–0–1Dragons21 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Cardiff Blues by 6.9 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Cardiff Blues by 7.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | Cardiff Blues 22–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-10-17 | Dragons 17–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-12-26 | Dragons 22–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2023-12-26 | Cardiff Blues 55–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-10-29 | Dragons 9–16 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.