Cardiff Blues vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 77.9%draw 2.5%19.6% DragonsDragons 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 66.5%draw 2.5%31.0% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Dragons and 30 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 1 Cardiff Blues and 19 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 8 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Dragons 1330 — 316 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues21–0–1Dragons22 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Cardiff Blues by 7.0 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Cardiff Blues by 8.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | Cardiff Blues 22–19 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-10-17 | Dragons 17–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-12-26 | Dragons 22–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Rodney Parade |
| 2024-11-30 | Cardiff Blues 31–23 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-12-26 | Cardiff Blues 55–21 Dragons | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.