Cardiff Blues vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 51.3%draw 2.5%46.2% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Edinburgh and 26 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 2 Edinburgh and 15 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 6 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-15 on a tight afternoon and 31-25 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Edinburgh 1528 — 117 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues9–0–8Edinburgh17 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 2.4 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Edinburgh by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Cardiff Blues 20–19 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-10-19 | Edinburgh 27–8 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Cardiff Blues 7–24 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-10-30 | Cardiff Blues 17–25 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-01-08 | Edinburgh 34–10 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.