Cardiff Blues vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 54.0%draw 2.5%43.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 53.3%draw 2.5%44.2% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Edinburgh and 27 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 5 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Edinburgh.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Edinburgh 1496 — 77 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues8–0–8Edinburgh16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Edinburgh by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Cardiff Blues 20–19 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-10-19 | Edinburgh 27–8 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Cardiff Blues 7–24 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-10-30 | Cardiff Blues 17–25 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-01-08 | Edinburgh 34–10 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hive Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.