Cardiff Blues vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 56.2%draw 2.5%41.3% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 72.1%draw 2.5%25.4% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 40.6%draw 2.5%56.9% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Exeter Chiefs and 23 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 6 Exeter Chiefs and 11 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 71 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 31.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Exeter Chiefs 31–0 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.