Cardiff Blues vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 49.0%draw 2.5%48.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 76.8%draw 2.5%20.7% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 34.6%draw 2.5%62.9% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Exeter Chiefs and 20 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 181 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 31.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Exeter Chiefs 31–0 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.