Cardiff Blues vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 44.8%draw 2.5%52.7% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 85.0%draw 2.5%12.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 27.8%draw 2.5%69.7% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Glasgow Warriors and 15 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 9 Glasgow Warriors and 7 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 29-28 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 304 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–16Glasgow Warriors18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 11.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Glasgow Warriors by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-10-04 | Cardiff Blues 36–52 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-03-22 | Glasgow Warriors 17–13 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-09-23 | Glasgow Warriors 52–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-03-26 | Cardiff Blues 32–28 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.