Cardiff Blues vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 46.8%draw 2.5%50.7% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 35.2%draw 2.5%62.3% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Glasgow Warriors and 16 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 218 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–16Glasgow Warriors18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Glasgow Warriors by 11.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Glasgow Warriors by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Glasgow Warriors 40–17 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2024-10-04 | Cardiff Blues 36–52 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-03-22 | Glasgow Warriors 17–13 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-09-23 | Glasgow Warriors 52–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-03-26 | Cardiff Blues 32–28 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.