Cardiff Blues vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 55.1%draw 2.5%42.4% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Gloucester Rugby and 19 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 6 Gloucester Rugby and 9 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 39 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues1–0–1Gloucester Rugby2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Gloucester Rugby by 9.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-11 | Cardiff Blues 31–30 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | San Mames |
| 2017-04-01 | Gloucester Rugby 46–26 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.