Cardiff Blues vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 65.5%draw 2.5%32.0% HarlequinsHarlequins 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 49.9%draw 2.5%47.6% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Harlequins and 24 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 3 Harlequins and 13 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 4 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Harlequins 1542 — 103 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–5Harlequins5 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Harlequins by 17.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | Cardiff Blues 15–54 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-01-14 | Cardiff Blues 33–36 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2021-12-18 | Harlequins 43–17 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2016-01-17 | Harlequins 34–26 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2015-11-19 | Cardiff Blues 20–32 Harlequins | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.